Brexit, COVID-19 and climate change: mapping the impact of the ‘triple challenge' on health and well-being in wales

Brexit, COVID-19 and climate change pose challenges of national and global importance. They continue to have impacts across the economy, society, health, and the environment, all of which are determinants of health and well-being. Between 2018 and 2021, Public Health Wales undertook three Health Impact Assessments (HIA) in relation to the impact of the challenges in Wales. Based on these, work has been carried out to map the synergies across the ‘Triple Challenge'. This paper highlights the commonalities in the impact of the three challenges for Wales, discusses the process carried out, learns from it and proposes actions that can be taken to mitigate harm. Results indicate the three components of the Triple Challenge must not be viewed as separate silos as they have cumulative multi-faceted impacts. This affects some population groups more negatively than others and present a ‘Triple Challenge' to nation states in the UK and Europe. A HIA approach can enable a range of stakeholders to critically view similar challenges not just as single issues but as a holistic whole to mobilise action.

The impact of behavioural risk factors on communicable diseases: a systematic review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted that individuals with behavioural risk factors commonly associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as smoking, harmful alcohol use, obesity, and physical inactivity, are more likely to experience severe symptoms from COVID-19. These risk factors have been shown to increase the risk of NCDs, but less is known about their broader influence on communicable diseases. Taking a wide focus on a range of common communicable diseases, this review aimed to synthesise research examining the impact of behavioural risk factors commonly associated with NCDs on risks of contracting, or having more severe outcomes from, communicable diseases. METHODS: Literature searches identified systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined the association between behavioural risk factors (alcohol, smoking, illicit drug use, physical inactivity, obesity and poor diet) and the contraction/severity of common communicable diseases, including infection or associated pathogens. An a priori, prospectively registered protocol was followed (PROSPERO; registration number CRD42020223890). RESULTS: Fifty-three systematic reviews were included, of which 36 were also meta-analyses. Reviews focused on: tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus, invasive bacterial diseases, pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19. Twenty-one reviews examined the association between behavioural risk factors and communicable disease contraction and 35 examined their association with communicable disease outcomes (three examined their association with both contraction and outcomes). Fifty out of 53 reviews (94%) concluded that at least one of the behavioural risk factors studied increased the risk of contracting or experiencing worse health outcomes from a communicable disease. Across all reviews, effect sizes, where calculated, ranged from 0.83 to 8.22. CONCLUSIONS: Behavioural risk factors play a significant role in the risk of contracting and experiencing more severe outcomes from communicable diseases. Prevention of communicable diseases is likely to be most successful if it involves the prevention of behavioural risk factors commonly associated with NCDs. These findings are important for understanding risks associated with communicable disease, and timely, given the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for improvements in future pandemic preparedness. Addressing behavioural risk factors should be an important part of work to build resilience against any emerging and future epidemics and pandemics.

Service use related to violence against women and children during COVID-19

BackgroundGlobally, concerns have been raised that the priority implementation of public health measures in response to COVID-19 may have unintended negative impacts on a variety of other health and wellbeing factors, including violence.AimThis study examined the impact of COVID-19 response measures on changes in violence against women and children (VAWC) service utilisation across European countries.MethodsA rapid assessment design was used to compile quantitative data related to changes in VAWC service utilisation during COVID-19. This included a survey distributed across WHO Europe Healthy Cities Networks and Violence Injury Prevention Focal Points, and a scoping review of media reports, journal articles, and reports.ResultsOverall, findings suggested that there was a median reported increase in VAWC service utilisation of approximately 20% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crucially, however, change in service utilisation differed across sectors with the highest median increase in utilisation for NGOs (48%), a relatively small median increase for law enforcement services (6%), and a small decrease for health and social services (-8%).ConclusionsThe variation across sectors in changes in VAWC service utilisation has important implications for policymakers in the event of ongoing and future restrictions related to COVID-19 and more generally during other times of prolonged presence in the home. The increased global attention on VAWC during the pandemic should be used to drive forward the agenda on prevention, increase access to services, and implement better data collection mechanisms, to ensure the momentum and increased focus on VAWC during the pandemic is not wasted.

Toward an economy of wellbeing: The economic impact of the Welsh healthcare sector.

Population health and wellbeing is both a result, as well as a driver, of economic development and prosperity on global, European, national and sub-national (local) levels. Wales, one of the four United Kingdom (UK) nations, has shown a long-term commitment to sustainable development and achieving prosperity for all, providing a good example of both national and sub-national level, which can be useful for other European countries and regions. In this paper, the economic importance of the healthcare sector to the Welsh economy is explored. We use a large number of data sources for the UK and Welsh economy to derive an economic model for 2017. We estimate output, income, employment, value-added, and import multipliers of the healthcare sector. Results suggest that the healthcare sector has an above average contribution in four explored economic aspects of the Welsh economy (output, income, employment, value-added), according to its impact on the surrounding economic ecosystem. Also, it is below average regarding leaking through imports. The multipliers' values offer empirical evidence when deciding on alternative policy actions. Such actions can be used as a stimulus for encouraging regional development and post-COVID economic recovery. Our study refers to the Welsh healthcare sector's economic impact as a whole. Therefore, we suggest investigating the economic impact of individual healthcare providers in the future.

Predicted and observed impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns: two Health Impact Assessments in Scotland and Wales.

Health Impact Assessment is a key approach used internationally to identify positive or negative impacts of policies, plans and proposals on health and well-being. In 2020, HIAs were undertaken in Scotland and Wales to identify the potential health and well-being impacts of the 'stay at home' and physical distancing measures implemented at the start of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. There is sparse evidence evaluating whether the impacts predicted in HIAs occur following policy implementation. This paper evaluates the impacts anticipated in the COVID-19 HIAs against actual observed trends. The processes undertaken were compared and predicted impacts were tabulated by population groups and main determinants of health. Routine data and literature evidence were collated to compare predicted and observed impacts. Nearly all health impacts anticipated in both HIAs have occurred in the direction predicted. There have been significant adverse impacts through multiple direct and indirect pathways including loss of income, social isolation, disruption to education and services, and psychosocial effects. This research demonstrates the value of prediction in impact assessment and fills a gap in the literature by comparing the predicted impacts identified within the HIAs with observed trends. Post-COVID-19 recovery should centre health and well-being within future policies and decisions. Processes like HIA can support this as part of a 'health in all policies' approach to improve the health and well-being of populations.

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is an approach used to identify positive or negative impacts of policies, plans and proposals on health and well-being. In 2020, HIAs were undertaken in Scotland and Wales to identify the potential health and well-being impacts of the 'stay at home' and physical distancing measures (commonly called 'lockdown') which were put in place at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper evaluates whether these assessments were correct in their predictions. It finds that most of the health impacts anticipated in both assessments have occurred. These include significant impacts on income, employment and mental health. Using HIAs can help policymakers to take full account of these wider impacts on health and develop policies that benefit health and health equity.

Exploring the social value of Public Health Institutes: An international scoping survey and expert interviews.

Introduction: Making the case for investing in preventative public health by illustrating not only the health impact but the social, economic and environmental value of Public Health Institutes is imperative. This is captured by the concept of Social Value, which when measured, demonstrates the combined intersectoral value of public health. There is currently insufficient research and evidence to show the social value of Public Health Institutes and their work across the life course, population groups and settings, in order to make the case for more investment. Methods: During July 2021, a quantitative online self-administered questionnaire was conducted across international networks. Semi-structured interviews were also carried out with nine representatives to gain a deeper understanding. A thematic analysis was undertaken on the data collected. Results: In total, 82.3% (n = 14) were aware of the terminology of social value and 58.8% (n = 10) were aware of the economic method of Social Return on Investment. However, only two Institutes reported capturing social and community impacts within their economic analysis and only 41.2% (n = 7) currently capture or measure the social value of their actions. Interviews and survey responses indicate a lack of resources, skills and buy-in from political powers. Finally, 76.5% (n = 12) wanted to do more to understand and measure wider outcomes and impact of their actions. It was noted this can be achieved through enhancing political will, developing a community of best practice and tools. Conclusion: This research can inform future work to understand how to measure the holistic social value of Public Health Institutes, in order to strengthen institutional capacity and impact, as well as to achieve a more equitable society, and a more sustainable health system and economy, making the case for investing in public health, as we recover from COVID-19.

The public health impact of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Social distancing measures have been effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19; however, they have imposed a significant burden on population mental health and well-being. This study aimed to identify factors associated with loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to describe the relationship between loneliness and the risk of worsening health outcomes and behaviours. METHODS: Data for 8,960 adults were drawn from a national cross-sectional survey undertaken in Wales between January and June 2021. Participants self-reported changes to health and behaviour since the start of the pandemic. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with loneliness, and the impact of loneliness on self-reported changes in physical health, physical fitness, mental health, weight, alcohol consumption and social relations in comparison with pre-pandemic experiences. RESULTS: Groups most at risk of loneliness were those aged < 35 years, women (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.86 [1.70-2.05]), those with chronic health conditions (1.43 [1.29-1.58]) and the unemployed (2.18 [1.76-2.70]). Loneliness was a strong predictor of worsening health outcomes and behaviours, with those reporting often feeling lonely being at increased odds of worsening physical health (3.29 [2.80-3.86]), physical fitness (2.22 [1.90-2.60]), mental health (8.33 [6.95-9.99]), weight (1.39 [1.19-1.62]), alcohol consumption (1.37 [1.12,-1.66]) and social relations (2.45 [2.07-2.89]) during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: This study established an association between loneliness and self-reported worsening health during the pandemic, and identified factors increasing the risk of loneliness. The effect that social control measures have on loneliness should influence the design of future public health policy.

An evaluation of the Time to Move workplace physical activity intervention

Background Workplace physical activity interventions have shown positive outcomes for employee health, productivity and absenteeism (1,2). However, the majority prescribe the duration and/or type of activity to be undertaken. In response to strong public opinion that employers should do more to improve the health of their workforce, Public Health Wales, the public health agency for Wales, developed a 12-month pilot physical activity initiative - Time to Move (TTM). TTM allowed participants to use one hour/week (pro rata) of paid work time for any physical activity. We evaluated TTM to understand its impact and identify learning. Methods Using pre-experimental time series design, data were collected from participating employees: baseline (June-August 2018), mid-initiative (December 2018) and at 12-months (June-August 2019). Using validated scales where possible, questionnaires recorded: physical activity (MET-minutes/week), general health (0, poor-100, good), mental well-being (SWEMWBS), job satisfaction (1, very dissatisfied-5, very satisfied) and demographics. Biometric measures (baseline, 12-months) included Body Mass Index (BMI) and blood pressure. Analyses used descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis and generalized linear modelling. Focus groups explored participants' perceptions of TTM, analysed thematically. Results 542 participants completed all measures (63.1% of baseline). Compared to baseline, at 12-months 57.7% reported increased physical activity (30.6% decreased;11.6% no change) with 75.3% meeting UK activity guidelines (58.8% baseline). Those with the lowest levels of physical activity at baseline (n = 223) increased their weekly moderate activity by > 2.5 hours, whilst those with moderate activity (n = 269) increased by 58 minutes/week. A small improvement was reported in mental well-being (mean scores;22.4 baseline, 23.2 12-months), with participants with low mental well-being at baseline improving the most. Self-reported health and job satisfaction also improved. However, BMI and blood pressure changes were non-meaningful. Employee attitudes to TTM were positive. Organisational support was a motivating factor for participation, with competing demands a barrier. Conclusions The provision of paid time to engage in physical activity can improve employee health and well-being. TTM provides an example of how organisations can promote physical activity and change workplace culture. However, further research should explore the long-term impact of the intervention, including the potential impact of COVID-19-related restrictions.

Associations between adverse childhood experiences, attitudes towards COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine hesitancy: a cross-sectional study

ObjectivesAdverse childhood experiences (ACEs) can affect life-course health and well-being, including risk-taking behaviour and trust. This study explored associations between ACEs and trust in health information on COVID-19, attitudes towards and compliance with COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine hesitancy.DesignNational cross-sectional telephone survey using a sample of landline and mobile numbers stratified by Health Board, deprivation quintile and age group.SettingHouseholds in Wales during national COVID-19 restrictions (December 2020 to March 2021).Participants2285 Welsh residents aged ≥18 years.MeasuresNine ACEs;low trust in National Health Service (NHS) COVID-19 information;supporting removal of social distancing and mandatory face coverings;breaking COVID-19 restrictions;and vaccine hesitancy (rejection or uncertainty of vaccination).ResultsIncreasing ACE counts were independently related to low trust in NHS COVID-19 information, feeling unfairly restricted by government and ending mandatory face coverings. High ACE counts (4+ vs 0 ACEs) were also associated with supporting removal of social distancing. Breaking COVID-19 restrictions increased with ACE count with likelihood doubling from no ACEs to 4+ ACEs. Vaccine hesitancy was threefold higher with 4+ ACEs (vs 0 ACEs) and higher in younger age groups. Thus, modelled estimates of vaccine hesitancy ranged from 3.42% with no ACEs, aged ≥70 years, to 38.06% with 4+ ACEs, aged 18–29 years.ConclusionsACEs are common across populations of many countries. Understanding how they impact trust in health advice and uptake of medical interventions could play a critical role in the continuing response to COVID-19 and controlling future pandemics. Individuals with ACEs suffer greater health risks throughout life and may also be excluded from interventions that reduce infection risks. While pandemic responses should consider how best to reach those suffering from ACEs, longer term, better compliance with public health advice is another reason to invest in safe and secure childhoods for all children.

An evaluation of a short film promoting kindness in Wales during COVID-19 restrictions #TimeToBeKind.

BACKGROUND: In response to successive COVID-19 restrictions in Wales, the Welsh ACE Support Hub launched the #TimeToBeKind campaign in March 2021. The campaign used a short film broadcast on national television and promoted on social media to encourage behaviour change for kindness. We evaluated the #TimeToBeKind campaign film to identify whether watching the film would result in increased intention to act in ways that promote kindness to others and if intentions were associated with being emotionally affected by the film. METHODS: A mixed methods evaluation was employed, using a short online survey and interaction with the film on the Twitter social media platform. The online survey measured public (n = 390) attitudes towards the film including feelings invoked, and behavioural intentions for acts of kindness as a result of viewing the film. Tweets which interacted with the film (n = 59; likes, re-tweets or comments), and tweet sentiment (positive, negative, or neutral) towards the film were also explored. RESULTS: The majority of participants reported positive attitudes to the film and agreed that they understood the campaign message (91.8%). 67.9% reported that the film made them feel upset or sad and for 22.6% the film resonated with their lockdown experience. As a result of seeing the film, 63.6% reported intentions to be kinder to others, 65.6% intended to try and help other members of their community, and 70.5% were more likely to check in on friends, family and neighbours. A higher proportion of individuals who were emotionally affected by the film (e.g. upset or sad, hopeful or encouraged, gained something positive) and those for whom the film resonated with their lockdown experience reported increased kindness behavioural intentions as a result of seeing the film. CONCLUSIONS: Film can be an effective tool to promote behaviour change for kindness. Films that provoke strong emotional reactions can still be perceived positively and lead to behaviour change. With the COVID-19 pandemic accelerating a move online for many, the findings of the present evaluation are relevant to how public health messaging can adapt and utilise this space to target individuals and promote behaviour change.

The impact of COVID-19 and associated measures on health, police, and non-government organisation service utilisation related to violence against women and children.

BACKGROUND: Globally, concerns have been raised that the priority implementation of public health measures in response to COVID-19 may have unintended negative impacts on a variety of other health and wellbeing factors, including violence. This study examined the impact of COVID-19 response measures on changes in violence against women and children (VAWC) service utilisation across European countries. METHODS: A rapid assessment design was used to compile data including a survey distributed across WHO Europe Healthy Cities Networks and Violence Injury Prevention Focal Points in WHO European Region member states, and a scoping review of media reports, journal articles, and reports. Searches were conducted in English and Russian and covered the period between 1 January 2020 and 17 September 2020. Data extracted included: country; violence type; service sector; and change in service utilisation during COVID-19. All data pertained to the period during which COVID-19 related public health measures were implemented compared to a period before restrictions were in place. RESULTS: Overall, findings suggested that there was a median reported increase in VAWC service utilisation of approximately 20% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crucially, however, change in service utilisation differed across sectors. After categorising each estimate as reflecting an increase or decrease in VAWC service utilisation, there was a significant association between sector and change in service utilisation; the majority of NGO estimates (95.1%) showed an increase in utilisation, compared to 58.2% of law enforcement estimates and 42.9% of health and social care estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The variation across sectors in changes in VAWC service utilisation has important implications for policymakers in the event of ongoing and future restrictions related to COVID-19, and more generally during other times of prolonged presence in the home. The increased global attention on VAWC during the pandemic should be used to drive forward the agenda on prevention, increase access to services, and implement better data collection mechanisms to ensure the momentum and increased focus on VAWC during the pandemic is not wasted.

Health and financial costs of adverse childhood experiences in 28 European countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with increased health risks across the life course. We aimed to estimate the annual health and financial burden of ACEs for 28 European countries. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Criminal Justice Databases, and Education Resources Information Center for quantitative studies (published Jan 1, 1990, to Sept 8, 2020) that reported prevalence of ACEs and risks of health outcomes associated with ACEs. Pooled relative risks were calculated for associations between ACEs and harmful alcohol use, smoking, illicit drug use, high body-mass index, depression, anxiety, interpersonal violence, cancer, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and respiratory disease. Country-level ACE prevalence was calculated using available data. Country-level population attributable fractions (PAFs) due to ACEs were generated and applied to 2019 estimates of disability-adjusted life-years. Financial costs (US$ in 2019) were estimated using an adapted human capital approach. FINDINGS: In most countries, interpersonal violence had the largest PAFs due to ACEs (range 14·7-53·5%), followed by harmful alcohol use (15·7-45·0%), illicit drug use (15·2-44·9%), and anxiety (13·9%-44·8%). Harmful alcohol use, smoking, and cancer had the highest ACE-attributable costs in many countries. Total ACE-attributable costs ranged from $0·1 billion (Montenegro) to $129·4 billion (Germany) and were equivalent to between 1·1% (Sweden and Turkey) and 6·0% (Ukraine) of nations' gross domestic products. INTERPRETATION: Availability of ACE data varies widely between countries and country-level estimates cannot be directly compared. However, findings suggest ACEs are associated with major health and financial costs across European countries. The cost of not investing to prevent ACEs must be recognised, particularly as countries look to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which interrupted services and education, and potentially increased risk factors for ACEs. FUNDING: WHO Regional Office for Europe.

'Health in All Policies'-A Key Driver for Health and Well-Being in a Post-COVID-19 Pandemic World.

Policy in all sectors affects health, through multiple pathways and determinants. Health in all policies (HiAP) is an approach that seeks to identify and influence the health and equity impacts of policy decisions, to enhance health benefits and avoid harm. This usually involves the use of health impact assessment or health lens analysis. There is growing international experience in these approaches, and some countries have cross-sectoral governance structures that prioritize the assessment of the policies that are most likely to affect health. The fundamental elements of HiAP are inter-sectoral collaboration, policy influence, and holistic consideration of the range of health determinants affected by a policy area or proposal. HiAP requires public health professionals to invest time to build partnerships and engage meaningfully with the sectors affecting the social determinants of health and health equity. With commitment, political will and tools such as the health impact assessment, it provides a powerful approach to integrated policymaking that promotes health, well-being, and equity. The COVID-19 pandemic has raised the profile of public health and highlighted the links between health and other policy areas. This paper describes the rationale for, and principles underpinning, HiAP mechanisms, including HIA, experiences, challenges and opportunities for the future.

Using health impact assessment (HIA) to understand the wider health and well-being implications of policy decisions: the COVID-19 'staying at home and social distancing policy' in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is promoted as a decision-informing tool by public health and governmental agencies. HIA is beneficial when carried out as part of policy development but is also valuable as a methodology when a policy is being implemented to identify and understand the wider health and well-being impacts of policy decisions, particularly when a decision needs to be taken rapidly to protect the population. This paper focusses on a HIA of the 'Staying at Home and Social Distancing Policy' or 'lockdown' in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales conducted by the Welsh national public health institute. It describes the process and findings, captures the learning and discusses how the process has been used to better understand the wider health and well-being impacts of policy decisions beyond direct health harm. It also examines the role of public health institutes in promoting and using HIA. METHODS: A HIA was conducted following a standard HIA five step process. A literature review was undertaken alongside 15 qualitative semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, and relevant health and demographic data were collated. The results were triangulated and analysed to form a holistic assessment of the policy decision and its impacts. RESULTS: A wide range of major health and well-being impacts of the lockdown in Wales were identified across the determinants of health, which included positive and negative social, economic, environmental and mental well-being impacts beyond the impact on direct health. Populations affected included children and young people, those on low incomes and women as well as those whose health has been directly impacted by COVID-19 such as older people. The work highlighted the benefit that HIA can bring in emphasizing impacts which can inform policy and shared learning with others. CONCLUSION: HIA is a largely underused tool to understand the impact of policy and political decisions, particularly when a decision has been taken at speed. This case study highlights how HIA provide evidence and information for advocacy and further work by public health institutes, health agencies and policy makers.